Can You Diggs It? Bills field goal favorites over visiting Ravens

Featured in this article:

  • The Bills are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine games.
  • Baltimore is 7-0 against the spread in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo’s last 17 games.

Lamar Jackson will earn the headlines and deservedly so, but hats off to the Ravens defense for holding Derrick Henry in check, the Titans offense to 12 first downs and only 209 totals yards. Baltimore’s 20-13 win and against the spread cover means the Ravens are 7-0 ATS over their past seven games.

The Colts rallied back from a 14-point deficit to cut the Bills lead to just three, but Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs stepped up when it mattered on offense and Buffalo’s defense allowed Indy to convert just 2-of-5 red zone trip opportunities. Buffalo’s 27-24 victory was their first playoff win since 1995, but fell short of covering the -7 to drop to 11-6 against the spread this season.

Divisional Playoffs: Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Game Info
Date: January 16, 2020, 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: Bills Stadium
TV Coverage: NBC
Opening Odds: Bills -3 | O/U 50
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

Buffalo opened as 3-point home favorites, but that has since ticked down to Bills -2.5 at most online sportsbooks we track. The Ravens moneyline opened at +125, while the point total opened and remains 50. The OVER has hit in 12 of Buffalo’s last 17 games.

The Ravens beat the Bills during the 2019 regular season, 24-17. Lamar Jackson passed for three touchdowns on the afternoon, while Baltimore’s defense held Josh Allen and Bills offense in check. Allen completed just 17-of-39 passes and rushed for nine yards. His leading receiver that day was Dawson Knox who finished with one catch for 37 yards. Buffalo’s overhauled passing game looks much different this season, however.

Ravens News and Notes

Five things to know:

    1. Baltimore averages the most points per first quarter in the league, 6.9. Buffalo’s defense will look to extinguish the Ravens attempt at a fast start on the road.
    2. The Ravens defense ranks top 10 in points allowed (18.6), pass (217) and rush (105) yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play (5.5).
    3. Baltimore allows the fewest red zone opportunities to opposing offenses in the NFL, 2.8 per game.
    4. The Ravens defense is getting stronger:
        1. Season-to-date yards allowed per game: 322.6
        2. Last 3 games: 224.3 per game
        3. vs. Titans: 209 yards
    5. Buffalo’s defense held Lamar Jackson to 40 rushing yards in their 2019 matchup. The Titans admitted they used the Bills approach to limiting Jackson when they knocked him out of LAST year’s playoffs.

Bills News and Notes

Five things to know:

  1. The Bills have not lost at home since October 19 (to Chiefs, 26-17)
  2. Buffalo ranked 24th in total yards and 23rd in points (19.6) per game last season. Heading into the divisional playoffs, the Bills rank 2nd in yards per game (396) and points (31.1) per game. The Ravens allowed 30-or-more points just three times all season (Chiefs, Browns, Steelers).
  3. While their offense is firing on all cylinders, the Bills defense has regressed somewhat.
      1. Season-to-date yards allowed per game: 359.5
      2. Last 3 games: 375.7 yards per game
      3. vs. Colts: 472 yards
  4. Receiver Stefon Diggs has averaged 125 receiving yards per game over his past five.
  5. Running back Zack Moss is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. He averaged 4.3 yards per rush on 112 carries with four rushing touchdowns, which led the team among running backs.

Game Pick: Bills -2.5

The Allen-to-Diggs connection is a game-changer week in and week out and while Baltimore’s defense remains a top 10 unit, their secondary can be exposed at any given moment. Again, look what the Browns did to them just four weeks ago. This will no doubt be an entertaining, close contest, but do believe Buffalo has just a little bit more edge heading into this matchup with Allen’s arm the difference.

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