NCAABB Selection Sunday Props value (To Make Tournament and O/U Seeding)

On Draftkings and BetRivers, they have Selection Sunday props that you can bet on for “Will X team make the tournament” and “O/U seeding for X team”. There are several value plays, mainly using Bracketmatrix (consolidation of bracketologies), I placed that I thought are worth sharing:

To Make Tournament (mainly fading teams at plus odds):

Indiana NO +120: Currently 4th last team in the tournament on BM, but they’re 12-11 and their final 3 games are Michigan, at MSU, and at Purdue. If they go 1-2 in those 3 games, which seems like a best case scenario, they’re almost assured to finish .500 at best unless they get hot in the Big Ten tourney. It’s tough to see them getting an at-large with a .500 record.

Connecticut NO +400: While they are a strong team with Bouknight back, BM has them as last team in and Lunardi actually has them as second team out. They finish home to Marquette and Georgetown and at Seton Hall so not really an opportunity for an earth shattering win. For a team that seems to be squarely on the bubble, this is great odds.

Duke NO +158: Duke is getting a lot of love right now, but they’re still out for the time being. While it seems like they’ve turned a corner, after hosting Louisville they finish at GT and at UNC, two games that are very losable.

Stanford NO +225: This is my favorite pick and the odds make no sense to me. Stanford currently is out on both BM and Lunardi and their NET is at 58. They finish home to Oregon and Oregon State and at USC. Without a win at USC it’s tough to see how they move the needle, and with 1-2 bid stealers it could become increasingly difficult to make the field.

Colorado State YES +290: Colorado State is currently 45 in NET and is in the field in both BM and Lunardi. They also should get another shot at a good win in the MWC tournament against one of Utah St, Boise St, and SDSU. There’s also an outside chance they just win the MWC tournament and you don’t even have to worry about an at-large.

O/U seeding:

Missouri O5.5 -127: Missouri is currently the third 6 seed on BM and is sliding. They do have very impressive wins (Oregon and Illinois neutral, Alabama, at Arkansas, etc.) but they’re 7-7 in the SEC. They would likely need a win at Florida and 1-2 SECT wins to get back to the 5 line and I don’t see it happening.

Creighton O4.5 +132: At plus odds and with Creighton being the Top 5 seed on BM, I like the value. Their next 2 games at Xavier and at Villanova will really determine this one.

Oklahoma U4.5 -132: Even though they just lost to KState, Oklahoma still has a very impressive resume and is the last 3 seed on BM. They get home opportunities against OK State and Texas to hopefully help bolster the resume before the Big 12 tournament. There’s not really any more opportunity for a bad loss which helps.

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