- The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) take on the New England Patriots (2-1) at 4:25pm EST on CBS
- 2020 Season: 1-1 Moneyline (+0.18 Units), 0-1 Total (-1 Unit)
- We break down the Week 4 match-up and give the best bets
**Cam Newton has tested positive for COVID-19 and this game has been pulled off the board at sportsbooks. We will either see this game postponed or Brian Hoyer / Jarrett Stidham lead the Patriots into Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Chiefs.
The NFL has announced the game will be postponed to either Monday or Tuesday.
The spread, which was KC -7 before the news, will almost certainly become double-digits if the game is played. We’ll update this post when we know more.**
While recent games between these two teams have always been entertaining, some of the principal players will be different when the Patriots take on the Chiefs on Sunday.
Tom Brady is gone. We know that. But a Patriots’ defense that has done surprisingly OK against Patrick Mahomes has undergone some massive changes this year. And yes, ‘OK’ is considered a compliment when it’s Mahomes on the other side.
The Chiefs meanwhile, remain largely intact on both sides of the ball. So it’ll be interesting to see what Bill Belichick has in store for them at Arrowhead when they kick-off at 4:25 pm on Sunday.
Patriots vs Chiefs Week 4 Odds
|New England Patriots|
|Kansas City Chiefs|
Odds as of Oct 3rd at DraftKings
The Patriots vs Chiefs Betting Trends have seen New England receive a healthy amount of the action. That can likely be attributed to their rare spot as an underdog. They’re 0-1 in that spot this year, losing by five on a four-point spread, but 7-1 from 2014-19.
New England is seven-point underdogs for just the third time since 2002, and they’re 1-1 in those games. They covered in 2016 in Arizona in Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start, and lost in 2009 at Houston during Week 17.
Belichick’s Plan for Slowing Chiefs’ Offense
The thing that Bill Belichick is famous for, is taking away your best player. But for the Chiefs, that’s Patrick Mahomes.
Because that’s nearly impossible, you have to switch your attention to his weapons.
Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce vs Patriots Since 2018
Kelce has never had more than 70 yards in a game with Mahomes at quarterback against the Patriots. His lone touchdown came in the 2018 AFC Championship Game. He’ll get the same treatment, which just held the Raiders’ Darren Waller to two catches and nine yards last week.
Hill torched them during their 2018 regular season meeting for 142 yards and three touchdowns. He’s combined for 104 yards on eight catches in the other two games. He won’t draw Stephon Gilmore, but a faster corner with lots of safety help.
Over the next few days you’ll hear a lot about the @Patriots “man coverage” vs the @Chiefs
Sounds simple-far from it-NE has more “man coverages” than anyone. The challenge for Reid & EB-anticipating WHICH ONE & calling the RIGHT PLAY for it! @ArrowheadPride @ESPNNFL @PatsFans pic.twitter.com/GTPx33qWKf
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) October 2, 2020
What this means is KC will likely rely on Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Currently second in the NFL Rookie of the Year odds, CEH should have some room to run against a defense that has allowed the 10th-most first downs on the ground and 4.6 yards-per-carry.
How Will Chiefs Slow Cam Newton?
The biggest factor in whether or not the Pats can cover in this spot will be the play of Cam Newton.
So far, Newton has had three very different weeks for New England. He led a run-heavy approach in Week 1, followed by an aerial assault in Week 2. Then he … kind of laid an egg against the Raiders.
Patriots time of possession
NE 34:39, MIA 25:21
SEA 31:19, NE 28:41
NE 34:49, LV 25:11
Looking ahead to Chiefs, as the great @TedyBruschi noted, complementary football will be critical for NE. Must possess ball on offense, limit big plays on D, win on ST.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) September 29, 2020
Newton started the game 5-for-13 for 35 yards, with one interception and one sack. On the Pats’ last full drive of the second half, he went 5-for-6 for 55 yards and a touchdown. They can’t afford a slow start in Week 4.
The Chiefs have limited Deshaun Watson and Justin Herbert to 27 and 18 rushing yards respectively. Lamar Jackson ran for 83 yards on Monday night, but also only passed for 97. To win, or cover, Newton will need to play more like he did against Seattle.
Chiefs Dominate at Arrowhead
Since Mahomes took over in 2018, the Chiefs have gradually gotten better as a home favorite.
In his first year they were 5-5 ATS, and they finished last year 5-2-1. This year they’re 1-0.
But their previous three games against the Pats have been decided by seven, six and three points.
People are likely enamored with the early Brady-less results for New England, but they’re still a work in progress. They’ll be able to keep it close for most of the afternoon, but Mahomes will eventually put them away and move to 4-0.
The Pick: Chiefs -7.0 (-109, 1 Unit), Over 53 (-110, 1 Unit)