NFC Championship Odds: Rodgers, Packers open 4-point favorites over Brady’s Bucs

Featured in this article:

  • The Packers converted 8-of-12 third downs against the Rams’ top-ranked defense.
  • This will be Tom Brady’s 14th conference championship game.
  • Lambeau Field forecast calls for a chance of snow and temps in high-20’s.

The Buccaneers defense forced four turnovers and the offense converted those into 21 points as Tom Brady cashed in on three of Tampa’s six red zone trips in their 30-20 comeback win over New Orleans to improve their against the spread record to 10-8 on the season. Tampa Bay heads back to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2002, while Brady gets set to partake in his ungodly 14th conference title game.

Heading into their divisional playoff matchup with the Packers, the Rams boasted the league’s best defense on paper. Aaron Rodgers shredded that and Los Angeles’ secondary for 296 yards, two touchdowns and no turnovers. Green Bay’s o-line did not allow one sack against an imposing defensive pass rush led by a limited-due-to-injury, Aaron Donald. With the 32-18 win, the Packers improve to 14-3 straight up and 11-6 against the spread after covering the -7.

NFC Championship: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Game Info
Date: January 24, 2020, 3:05 p.m. ET
Stadium: Lambeau Field
TV Coverage: FOX
Opening Odds: Packers -4 | O/U 51
How to Bet: Best Online Sportsbook Reviews

Line Movement

Green Bay opened and remain 4-point home favorites as of Monday morning. The Buccaneers moneyline opened at +166, while the point total opened and remains at 51. The total has gone OVER in the Packers’ last eight games played in January.

The Packers headed into their Week 6 regular season matchup in Tampa Bay undefeated and actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead before Tom Brady and the Buccaneers posted a 28-point second quarter and outscored Green Bay 38-0 the final three quarters. MVP favorite Aaron Rodgers finished with just 160 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in his worst game of the season.

Buccaneers News and Notes

Five things to know:

  • With Green Bay’s weather forecast a big storyline heading into Sunday’s NFC title game, know that Tom Brady has won more than 50 games when temperatures dip below 40 degrees and has won at least 25 games when temps fell below 30 degrees. In his one 2020 regular season game in conditions where temps were sub-40, he was 28-40 for 279 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.
  • Tampa Bay has won seven consecutive road games.
  • The Buccaneers secondary allows 13.2 passing first downs per game, 11th-most in the NFL.
  • Antonio Brown is questionable for the NFC Championship game with a knee injury and an MRI is scheduled.
  • Be sure to check out our Super Bowl 55 super page, chock full of betting information and information to get you ready for the big game this February.

Packers News and Notes

Five things to know:

  • Aaron Rodgers record when temps dip below freezing (32 degrees Fahrenheit) is 28-6, the Packers average nearly 30 points per game and win by an average margin of 15.5 points.
  • Unlike in past seasons, Green Bay’s offensive line has done an incredible job protecting Rodgers. They allowed the third fewest sacks per game, 1.3 SAPG.
  • Speaking of that o-line, of the four remaining playoff teams, Green Bay’s rush offense is by-far the best. The Packers ranked 8th in rush yards per game during the regular season and have averaged 167 RYPG over their past three. So, while Rodgers earns the MVP headlines, lead running back Aaron Jones is bursting through running lanes. He’s rushed for 90-or-more yards in four of his last seven games.
  • The Packers defense rank in the top 10 in holding opposing offenses to the lowest third-down and red zone conversion rates. Brady will be tested once again.
  • Green Bay has won six straight home games.

Game Pick: Packers -4

Brady’s had a great run, but the Packers are more balanced and possess the better defense in this matchup. I’ll take Rodgers and lay the points on a chill afternoon at Lambeau Field.

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