NFL Prop Bet Payday: The Week 7 Get Over It Edition

John Holler
| Sportsbook Wire

There are times when you see betting lines and you figure there is something wrong with it – like anyone who is double-digit favorites against the New York Jets. In the prop bet world, it’s much simpler. You are provided a number and you decide whether to go Over that number or Under. This week we’re getting Over it with five bets that should be able to hit the Over.

NFL Week 7 prop bet payday

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:43 p.m. ET.

The Zeke shall inherit the Earth

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott isn’t having a season by Elliott standards, but he’s playing against the Washington Football Team this week. As we learned Thursday night, the ratty teams from the NFC East can actually look pretty good when they’re playing each other. Elliott’s Over/Under for rushing yards is 79.5 yards (O: -115 | U: -115). I think he can hit 100 yards for the first time this season. Take the OVER 79.5 ( -115).

Ridley me this

There is a changing of the guard going on in Atlanta. WR Calvin Ridley is replacing Julio Jones as the Falcons’ more consistent receiver. Yet, his Over/Under for receiving yards against a pedestrian Detroit Lions defense is 77.5 (-115 for both). The expectation is QB Matt Ryan is going to top 300 passing yards again this week. If he does, Ridley will need to be a big part of that. Take the OVER 77.5 ( -115).

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Pick a Lock

The Kansas City Chiefs are heading into Denver and, even if it snows Sunday, the offense is going to be moving the ball up and down the field. Broncos QB Drew Lock has an Over/Under for passing yards of just 216.5 (115 for both). Kansas City’s defense is far from dominant and, if the Chiefs are ahead by double digits early – as many expect – the Broncos are going to have to throw early and often. It may not come until garbage time in the fourth quarter, but take the OVER 216.5 ( -115).

Lockett down

There are some props that the sportsbooks want you to take, so they set the numbers differently. Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett had a couple of quiet weeks before the Seahawks had their bye week, resulting in a pee wee Over/Under of 65.5 receiving yards (O: -134 | U: +100). You’re being dared to take the Under because the yardage is so easily attainable. Take the OVER 65.5 ( -134).

Big bad Johnnu

Tennessee Titans TE Johnnu Smith is emerging as a bigger part of QB Ryan Tannehill’s pass offense. Smith’s Over/Under for receiving yards is 39.5 (-115 for both) against a stout Pittsburgh Steelers defense. If may take five check-down passes to hit that number, but the Steelers are going to be bringing the heat and sticking tight to the outside receivers. Look for Smith to be a release valve for Tannehill when the heat is on. Take the OVER 39.5 ( -115).

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