- Can the Pittsburgh Steelers end their first losing streak of the year in Buffalo against the 9-3 Bills? (8:20 EST)
- Last week’s picks went 1-4, losing 1.62 units
- See below who we believe will shine in this pivotal AFC clash
The Pittsburgh Steelers can’t afford to let their losing streak extend to multiple games, but they’ll be in tough to get a win against the Buffalo Bills, coming in as two-point underdogs in Orchard Park.
Pittsburgh has spent all season trying to fend off the Kansas City Chiefs for the number one seed in the AFC, and yet a loss here would mean the Bills are just a game back of the Steelers entering the final stretch. On a clear night in Western New York, can Pittsburgh’s offense get it going to keep pace with Buffalo’s high-powered attack?
Steelers vs Bills Player Props
|Passers||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)||27.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||269.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +154)|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||267.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||1.5 (Ov -200 | Un +154)|
|Rushers||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|James Conner (PIT)||N/A||50.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||N/A||33.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Zach Moss (BUF)||N/A||27.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||N/A||29.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Receivers||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Diontae Johnson (PIT)||5.5 (Ov -156 | Un +122)||60.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||21.5 (Ov +102 | Un -130)|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)||5.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130)||56.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||19.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)|
|Chase Claypool (PIT)||3.5 (Ov -146 | Un +113)||40.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||5.5 (Ov -192 | Un +148)||75.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||24.5 (Ov +102 | Un -130)|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||5.5 (Ov +108 | Un -138)||69.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||23.5 (Ov +108 | Un -138)|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||3.5 (Ov +118 | Un -150)||47.5 (Ov -110 | Un -110)||N/A|
Odds taken Dec. 13 from DraftKings and FanDuel
Conner Loses Battle of Weaknesses
The Steelers run game has been atrocious this year. They’re tied for dead last in the league averaging 3.7 yards per carry and that inability to grind the clock is one of the reasons they’ve been in so many big leads evaporate.
James Conner returns to Pittsburgh’s lineup for this one after missing two games on the COVID reserve list. The Steelers will also get Maurkice Pouncey back to take on the league’s 24th ranked run defense. And yet I still don’t have faith in Pittsburgh to get their ground game going in this one.
2 key takeaways from this stop:
1) AJ Klein motions along with the tight end and fills his gap to force Jeff Wilson into making a cut
2) Tremaine Edmunds sifts through traffic and ABSOLUTELY STICKS JEFF WILSON AND IS THE PRINCE THAT WAS PROMISED#BillsMafia #Bills #GoBills pic.twitter.com/AGNBwB1w69
— Anthony Cover 1 (@Pro__Ant) December 12, 2020
The Bills defense underachieved in the first half of the season, but they’re too talented of a unit to keep that play up for the whole year. They’ve been rounding into form in recent weeks, and with Matt Milano back in the lineup and Tremaine Edmunds playing some of his best ball, they were up the task of stopping a great 49ers run game.
Pittsburgh is going to have to score a ton of points to keep pace in this one, so if Buffalo can corral the run game early, the Steelers will abandon it like they always do.
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 9, 2020
Look for Conner to have an underwhelming return to the lineup tonight.
Pick: 1 unit on James Conner UNDER 50.5 rushing yards (-110)
Josh Allen Arrives
The Bills erratic passer has really settled down this season, after developing a reputation for making head-scratching decisions in big moments. This year, he’s been at his best when the opposition is strongest.
josh allen against a top-half defense in the pittsburgh steelers tomorrow? the steelers are in big danger pic.twitter.com/suCHqUdg8g
— Michigan Football Analytics (@mfbanalytics) December 12, 2020
Coming off a game where he shredded Robert Saleh’s defense in what might have been his best outing as a pro, I understand if you think Allen is due for a little backslide. But against a Steelers team known to send pressure, Allen will have a chance to make some big plays, either down the field or with his legs.
Keith Butler on Bills QB Josh Allen: “Sometimes he runs to escape. Sometimes he’s got called plays for him in terms of draws, quarterback draws and stuff like that. Sometimes he runs sweeps. We have to be ready for him doing that at all times. He is an effective runner for them.”
— Steelers Depot ? (@Steelersdepot) December 11, 2020
Allen has topped 30 yards rushing just five times this season, but I think he’ll have a couple big runs tonight when nothing else is there.
Pick: 1 unit on Josh Allen OVER 29.5 rushing yards (-110)
Steelers vs Bills Scoring Props
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|James Conner (PIT)||+750||+105|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||+950||+135|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||+1200||+175|
|JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)||+1200||+180|
|Chase Claypool (PIT)||+1200||+180|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||+1300||+200|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||+1300||+200|
|Diontae Johnson (PIT)||+1400||+220|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||+1600||+250|
|Zach Moss (BUF)||+1600||+275|
Allen Key In Victory
Picking Allen to find the endzone is always a solid bet: he’s done it more than any Buffalo player in the last two seasons by a wide margin. Not only can he make plays on the ground, but he’s pretty great option as a receiver.
Against a blitz-happy team like the Steelers, there will be space for Allen to make plays with his feet if he can escape that initial rush. He opened the scoring against Pittsburgh last year on SNF and has also scored the major in two games this season.
Josh Allen just got his 9th rushing TD on the year…????#Bills #Steelers #NFL #SNF
— Christopher Reiss (@ReissReport) December 16, 2019
Look for Allen to find the endzone at some point; hopefully right at the onset of this game.
Pick: 0.5 units on Josh Allen first TD (+1200); 0.5 units on Allen anytime TD (+175)