If everything goes off without a hitch, four weeks from today we’ll know who won the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In related news, I cracked open a fortune cookie the other day and, for the first time in my life, there was literally no fortune slip inside.
We’re not going to know who won the election four weeks from today, are we 2020?
Well, I guess with both candidates gearing up for the home stretch, we should take a look at political headlines some of the major media companies are featuring this morning.
NBC News: “Trump Slams Door On Relief Package, but asks for new $1,200 stimulus checks”
CNN: “Trump stuns with high-risk, erratic behavior” (Opinion)
New York Times: “Uncertainty Over Pandemic Aid Puts U.S. Economy At Risk”
FOX News: “Trump’s declassification of Russia, Clinton docs sparks fierce fights between current and ex-officials”
Remember last Friday, when the President of the United States was diagnosed with a once-in-a-century pandemic virus and was the first sitting president in decades to be admitted to the hospital? Yeah, me neither.
As President Trump continues to recover from coronavirus from the cozy confines of the White House, his polling numbers are reeling as are his odds to win the 2020 election. Though presidential odds have been on and off the board at online sportsbooks Bovada and BetOnline the past five days, one thing is definitely healthy: Biden’s lead. Week-over-week, the Democratic challenger’s odds rose from -140 to -175 at Bovada and -150 to -190 at BetOnline. At -190, there’s a 65.52 implied probability that Biden wins the election.
|2020 U.S. Election Betting Odds||Online Sportsbook (10/7/20)||Online Sportsbook (10/7/20)|
|Donald Trump||+145 (Last week +120)||+160 (Last week +130)|
|Joe Biden||-175 (Last week -140)||-190 (Last week -150)|
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Main Headlines
Trump Coronavirus Recovery
Less than 48 hours after leaving Walter Reed Hospital, President Trump’s attending physician released a memo informing the public that his patient was reporting no symptoms and enjoyed a restful first full day and night at home. His vital signs and oxygen levels were stable and that they would continue to monitor his health and provide updates as necessary.
All this positivity comes with an asterisk though as another administration key figure tested positive for coronavirus Tuesday. Advisor Stephen Miller is one of at least 10 Trump officials to test positive for COVID-19 over the last week.
Pandemic Stimulus Package Latest
Just as the American stock market indices were reaching one-month highs, President Trump tweeted out late-Tuesday afternoon that he was rejecting the Democrats latest proposal and would stop negotiating a deal until after the election.
Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 6, 2020
Shortly after that tweet, the stock market tanked, dipping several percentage points. If you’ve been following along, President Trump likes to link the strength of the stock market to the strength of the overall economy. So, after digesting the fact that it dipped following his social media proclamation, he somewhat reversed course later Tuesday night when he tweeted that he would be open to a one-off stimulus package that would send another round of $1,200 checks to American taxpayers. Additionally, there are whispers of another round of bailout dollars earmarked for the struggling airline industry. Those two events propped up the market again come Wednesday morning.
Vice Presidential Debate Tonight
The one and only vice-presidential debate is tonight, October 7, as the University of Utah welcomes Senator Kamala Harris and Vice President Mike Pence. Just like last week’s presidential debate, online sportsbook BetOnline is offering up some creative VP debate prop bets for you to wager on and track during what is expected to be must-watch television.
2020 U.S. Election Odds: Poll Positions
We’ll begin our weekly polling overview with a notable threshold being met over at the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports. The outlet’s daily Trump approval index recorded a -15 (negative 15) on October 7. Why is this newsworthy? It’s the lowest daily approval rating for President Trump since July 10, nearly three months ago.
Rasmussen’s weekly White House Watch poll, which surveys 2,500 likely voters via telephone and internet, has Biden leading by 12 points, 52-40. The former vice-president has cleared 50 percent on the Rasmussen poll two weeks in a row.
From there, polling doesn’t get much better for the incumbent. At FiveThirtyEight, their national polling average has Biden up 9.1 points. The two candidates are literally neck-and-neck in key battleground state Ohio.
This week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll has Biden ahead by 12 points among likely voters.
Also, just for reference, for those who interpret the latest polling numbers as “just like 2016,” know that Hillary Clinton’s lead in the polls was just 4 points as of October 7. So, while we always caution potential bettors NOT to read too much into the polls, to compare current data to Trump’s ability to buck polling numbers, it’s apples and, um, oranges.
In the lead up to November 3, Gamble Online will publish weekly 2020 U.S. election betting coverage with the latest polling news and updated betting odds. If you’re interested in learning more about how to bet on the 2020 United States election or are interested in learning more about the online sportsbooks that offer political odds and unique prop bets, be sure to check out our new expert 2020 election guide.