City to win a low-scorer
Manchester City v Manchester United
Same Game Multi: Manchester City to win, Under 2.5 Goals and Kevin De Bruyne 1+ shot on target @ 5.39/2
Manchester City are on an incredible winning run, and there is no reason to suggest it will stop here. Their underlying process in the eight ‘big-six’ games played so far have been sensational, averaging 2.2 xGF and 0.8 xGA per game.
Six of Manchester United’s seven ‘big-six’ matches have seen under 1.5 goals, with five goalless draws in there, with it seeming as though Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side choose not to attack in the bigger games (0.9 xGF per game). It really has been a defence-first approach to such matches, so although City are taken to win, a low-scoring win is fancied.
Kevin De Bruyne is getting back into the groove of things, and this season he has averaged 1.1 shots on target per 95 minutes, so adding him to make United’s keeper work bumps the price of this Same Game Multi slightly.
Bale to net in another Tottenham win
Tottenham v Crystal Palace
Same Game Multi: Tottenham to win, Under 3.5 Goals, BTTS ‘no’ and Gareth Bale to score @ 6.411/2
Tottenham made it three straight wins to nil in all competitions on Thursday, with their performances beginning to trend in a really positive direction. They host Crystal Palace here who have had real issues in attack for a long while, mustering over 1.0 xGF in just one of their last 14 league games. Hodgson’s side have drawn a blank in four of their last five.
Spurs’ last three displays suggest a balance has been found between strong attacking play and a solid backline, so they are taken to win on Sunday with another clean sheet expected given Palace’s attacking woes. I don’t expect Mourinho’s side to put up four like last week, especially with an eye on their Europa League game approaching.
Gareth Bale has scored four in his last five league games, and is averaging 0.5 xG per 95 mins in that stretch. Although it is a very small sample size, it shows that the Welshman is getting into better scoring positions more regularly – which is helped by him not being on the bench. I like his chances of adding to his tally in this game.