- Serie A Matchday 26 kicks off on Saturday, March 6, 2021, at 6:00 am EST with Spezia hosting Benevento
- Inter Milan have won ten-straight home matches at the San Siro
- Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 26 here
Italy’s Serie A is back on the pitch this weekend after a busy midweek slate which saw matches take place from Tuesday-Thursday. This weekend, Serie A Matchday 26 kicks off with three matches on Saturday, followed by six on Sunday and culminating with league-leaders Inter hosting Atalanta on Monday afternoon.
The lead at the top has been stretched to six points after an Inter win and Milan draw in midweek action. AC Milan dropped points, while they were without the services of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Ibra was injured, yet did return back from the Sanremo Music Festival to watch from the stands.
This weekend could see some squad rotation for teams playing in Europe next week. Juventus is playing Tuesday in the Champions League, as well as Roma and AC Milan who are playing Thursday in the Europa League.
Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 26 schedule below.
Serie A Matchday 26 Odds
|Spezia vs Benevento||+105||+240||+260|
|Udinese vs Sassuolo||+150||+225||+190|
|Juventus vs Lazio||-120||+275||+320|
|Roma vs Genoa||-200||+320||+550|
|Crotone vs Torino||+280||+240||+100|
|Fiorentina vs Parma||-110||+260||+300|
|Verona vs AC Milan||+260||+230||+110|
|Sampdoria vs Cagliari||+135||+240||+200|
|Napoli vs Bologna||-182||+320||+500|
|Inter Milan vs Atalanta||-106||+260||+280|
All odds taken Mar 4 at Bet365
Udinese vs Sassuolo Prediction
Heading into Tuesday’s match with Napoli, I talked about how Sassuolo has fully reverted back to the squad from last season that can basically always be counted on to both score and also concede. Before playing Napoli, Sassuolo matches had seen both teams scoring and at least three goals scored in 12 straight and eight of 12 respectively. Not surprisingly, with another offensive-minded team in Napoli, those streaks both extended in a wild 3-3 draw on Tuesday.
Udinese may only be 11th in the league ahead of Serie A Matchday 26, but, their recent form has been much better than their place in the table. On Tuesday, they were moments away from a win over AC Milan before allowing a stoppage-time penalty which saw Milan draw level in the 97th minute.
#ACMilan sit third in the ranking of most penalties won by a team in a single season in Europe’s ‘top five’ leagues, with 13 games left. pic.twitter.com/m4h2iQvXeo
— MilanData???? (@acmilandata) March 5, 2021
Over the past five rounds, only four teams have picked up more points than the Friulani. Those teams are Inter, Atalanta, Juventus and Lazio. Each of Udinese, Bologna and Verona are then tied with eight points in five matches.
Go back eight matches and Udinese is now 3-4-1 (WDL). And while those matches haven’t been thrilling—they’ve scored more than once in just two of those games, they have scored in six of eight, and kept things tight defensively by keeping four clean sheets and allowing just six goals.
Despite conceding over a goal per game on the season (34 GA in 25 games), Udinese is ranked third overall in expected goals allowed (xGA) at 27.5 at FBRef. All of that said, they have conceded in three of four with those scorelines reading: 1-1 (draw this week), 1-0 (W), 2-2 (D) and 3-0 (L).
Even Parma managed to find the back of the net twice against Udinese over the past few weeks and Sassuolo will be a much tougher beast to contain. But with Sassuolo’s propensity to concede goals, surely a Udinese side in good form will continue to cause Sassuolo’s backline issues as well. You could back both scoring and OVER 2.5 (+120), but with Udinese matches often being lower-scoring, I’ll settle for both teams to score at least one.
Pick: Both Teams to Score (-143)
Juventus vs Lazio Prediction
It’s looking less and less likely that Juventus will capture a tenth-straight Scudetto. They are ten points back of both Inter Milan and four points back of AC Milan. This, despite Tuesday’s 3-0 home win over Spezia and being undefeated in their past three in the league.
However, they are still very much alive in the Champions League, albeit, their backs are against the wall. After a leg one 2-1 loss in Portugal, they’ll host Porto in leg two knowing they need a win to advance to the Champions League Quarterfinals.
#Juventus prepare for three important home games in one week, as pressure mounts on coach Andrea Pirlo. https://t.co/qYz25pxRSQ#SerieA #JuventusSpezia #JuventusLazio #SerieATIM #UCL #JuventusPorto pic.twitter.com/jS5xOOlLbf
— footballitalia (@footballitalia) March 1, 2021
Because of this, and despite the implications at the top of the league table, it’s possible that Andrea Pirlo could rotate some of his troops for this match with Lazio on Serie A Matchday 26 at 2:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon in preparation of Tuesday’s gigantic clash.
He will definitely be without the likes of Paulo Dybala (knee), Rodrigo Bentacur (COVID), as well as Matthijs de Ligt who hasn’t fully trained. Others, such as Leonardo Bonucci and Alvaro Morata are still questionable.
The updated League Table after 25 #SerieATIM Matchdays! ????
Comment on your team’s position with an emoji. ???? ???? ????#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/3jzcQNjeBv
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) March 4, 2021
Lazio had been rolling in Serie A with six-straight wins before falling 3-1 to Inter on February 14. They were back in the win column with a 1-0 result over Sampdoria before turning in a disappointing performance against Bologna last week, losing 2-0.
However, having played in the Champions League and losing to Bayern Munich 4-1 just four days prior, perhaps the letdown and fatigue could’ve been expected. Lazio’s fortunes could’ve also been much different had Ciro Immobile converted a 17th-minute penalty last week against Bologna to give Lazio an early lead.
It’s rare we don’t see goals between these rivals. Earlier this year they drew 1-1 and last year Juve won 2-1 at home, Lazio won 3-1 at home and Lazio again won 3-1 in the Super Cup. Both teams have now scored in the past five meetings in all competitions. While at least three goals have also been scored in four of those five. Those stats, both scoring and three-plus goals total, have also been the result in seven of nine.
#myfridayfeeling #ForzaLazio ???????? pic.twitter.com/qXHnft1KLb
— Felipe Caicedo (@FelipaoCaicedo) March 5, 2021
If you want to follow that trend the odds offered are +100, while both teams to simply score once is -163.
Lazio won’t play until next weekend against bottom-side Crotone. And will then play leg two against Bayern on March 17. This match simply should mean more for Lazio right now as they battle to get inside the top six places. They currently sit seventh, with 43 points and one back of Napoli.
I’ll back the ‘double chance’ market on Lazio to get something from this match.
Pick: Lazio or Draw (-120)
Inter Milan vs Atalanta Prediction
The lead at the top of the table has been stretched after midweek play. Inter Milan head into Serie A Matchday 26 with a six-point lead over AC Milan. Inter were 2-1 winners on the road to Parma on Thursday, while Milan could only draw 1-1 at home to Udinese.
Inter’s match against Parma was all level at the half, but two second-half goals by Alexis Sanchez would prove to be enough. The win was their sixth-straight in Serie A and ninth-straight undefeated. When they return home to the San Siro on Monday, they do so knowing they’ve won ten-straight on their home pitch.
During Inter’s six-match winning streak they’ve outscored their opponents 17-2, scoring multiple goals in each game. Romelu Lukaku is second in the scoring race with 18 goals, while strike partner Lautaro Martinez is sixth with 13 goals.
4-2 v Torino
3-1 v Bologna
1-0 v Napoli
2-1 v Spezia
6-2 v Crotone
2-0 v Juventus
4-0 v Benevento
3-1 v Lazio
3-0 v Milan
3-0 v Genoa
Inter Milan make it 10 league wins in a row at the San Siro.
They are now seven points clear at the top of Serie A.#FORZAINTER ????⚫️ pic.twitter.com/tsucPqpAfI
— bet365 (@bet365) February 28, 2021
But, they will be coming up against a team in Atalanta, that is just as prolific offensively with 60 goals scored, only two behind Inter’s 62. Atalanta has lost just a single league match in their past 16. They are currently riding a four-match winning streak of their own where they’ve outscored their opposition 12-3.
In Atalanta’s midweek match against Crotone, La Dea ran rampant with goals from five different players in a 5-1 win. Luis Muriel had one of those five goals, giving him 15 on the season. That’s good for third overall, despite having never played a full 90 minutes this season. Duvan Zapata and Robin Gosens each have nine goals for La Dea, tied for 12th overall.
[email protected]_BC ???? @FcCrotoneOff#SerieATIM Matchday 2️⃣5️⃣
Final Result: 5️⃣ – 1️⃣
A dominant Atalanta scores 5: here all the goals!#WeAreCalcio pic.twitter.com/yGvtb18c84
— Lega Serie A (@SerieA_EN) March 5, 2021
Atalanta has no midweek action to play, not playing until next weekend’s match against Spezia. Followed by leg two of the Champions League against Real Madrid on March 16. While Inter simply has Serie A to worry about the rest of the way this year.
Earlier this season the teams split the points in a 1-1 draw. Despite all the offensive firepower on both sides, this was the seventh time in eight recent meetings between them that a bet on UNDER 2.5 goals would have cashed. Last year Inter won 2-0 and there was another 1-1 draw.
I’ll go against the recent trend though and back a high-scoring match Monday afternoon.
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)