Serie A Matchday 26 Odds & Picks: Juventus vs Lazio, Inter Milan vs Atalanta & More

Serie A Matchday 26

Juventus’ Federico Chiesa celebrates with Danilo, left, after scoring his side’s first goal during the Champions League round of 16, first leg, soccer match between FC Porto and Juventus at the Dragao stadium in Porto, Portugal, Wednesday, Feb. 17, 2021. (AP Photo/Luis Vieira)
  • Serie A Matchday 26 kicks off on Saturday, March 6, 2021, at 6:00 am EST with Spezia hosting Benevento
  • Inter Milan have won ten-straight home matches at the San Siro
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 26 here

Italy’s Serie A is back on the pitch this weekend after a busy midweek slate which saw matches take place from Tuesday-Thursday. This weekend, Serie A Matchday 26 kicks off with three matches on Saturday, followed by six on Sunday and culminating with league-leaders Inter hosting Atalanta on Monday afternoon.

The lead at the top has been stretched to six points after an Inter win and Milan draw in midweek action. AC Milan dropped points, while they were without the services of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Ibra was injured, yet did return back from the Sanremo Music Festival to watch from the stands.

This weekend could see some squad rotation for teams playing in Europe next week. Juventus is playing Tuesday in the Champions League, as well as Roma and AC Milan who are playing Thursday in the Europa League.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 26 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 26 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Spezia vs Benevento +105 +240 +260
Udinese vs Sassuolo +150 +225 +190
Juventus vs Lazio -120 +275 +320
Roma vs Genoa -200 +320 +550
Crotone vs Torino +280 +240 +100
Fiorentina vs Parma -110 +260 +300
Verona vs AC Milan +260 +230 +110
Sampdoria vs Cagliari +135 +240 +200
Napoli vs Bologna -182 +320 +500
Inter Milan vs Atalanta -106 +260 +280

All odds taken Mar 4 at Bet365

Udinese vs Sassuolo Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s match with Napoli, I talked about how Sassuolo has fully reverted back to the squad from last season that can basically always be counted on to both score and also concede. Before playing Napoli, Sassuolo matches had seen both teams scoring and at least three goals scored in 12 straight and eight of 12 respectively. Not surprisingly, with another offensive-minded team in Napoli, those streaks both extended in a wild 3-3 draw on Tuesday.

Udinese may only be 11th in the league ahead of Serie A Matchday 26, but, their recent form has been much better than their place in the table. On Tuesday, they were moments away from a win over AC Milan before allowing a stoppage-time penalty which saw Milan draw level in the 97th minute.

Over the past five rounds, only four teams have picked up more points than the Friulani. Those teams are Inter, Atalanta, Juventus and Lazio. Each of Udinese, Bologna and Verona are then tied with eight points in five matches.

Go back eight matches and Udinese is now 3-4-1 (WDL). And while those matches haven’t been thrilling—they’ve scored more than once in just two of those games, they have scored in six of eight, and kept things tight defensively by keeping four clean sheets and allowing just six goals.

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Despite conceding over a goal per game on the season (34 GA in 25 games), Udinese is ranked third overall in expected goals allowed (xGA) at 27.5 at FBRef. All of that said, they have conceded in three of four with those scorelines reading: 1-1 (draw this week), 1-0 (W), 2-2 (D) and 3-0 (L).

Even Parma managed to find the back of the net twice against Udinese over the past few weeks and Sassuolo will be a much tougher beast to contain. But with Sassuolo’s propensity to concede goals, surely a Udinese side in good form will continue to cause Sassuolo’s backline issues as well. You could back both scoring and OVER 2.5 (+120), but with Udinese matches often being lower-scoring, I’ll settle for both teams to score at least one.

Pick: Both Teams to Score (-143)

2021 Serie A Odds Tracker

Juventus vs Lazio Prediction

It’s looking less and less likely that Juventus will capture a tenth-straight Scudetto. They are ten points back of both Inter Milan and four points back of AC Milan. This, despite Tuesday’s 3-0 home win over Spezia and being undefeated in their past three in the league.

However, they are still very much alive in the Champions League, albeit, their backs are against the wall. After a leg one 2-1 loss in Portugal, they’ll host Porto in leg two knowing they need a win to advance to the Champions League Quarterfinals.

Because of this, and despite the implications at the top of the league table, it’s possible that Andrea Pirlo could rotate some of his troops for this match with Lazio on Serie A Matchday 26 at 2:45 pm EST Saturday afternoon in preparation of Tuesday’s gigantic clash.

He will definitely be without the likes of Paulo Dybala (knee), Rodrigo Bentacur (COVID), as well as Matthijs de Ligt who hasn’t fully trained. Others, such as Leonardo Bonucci and Alvaro Morata are still questionable.

Lazio had been rolling in Serie A with six-straight wins before falling 3-1 to Inter on February 14. They were back in the win column with a 1-0 result over Sampdoria before turning in a disappointing performance against Bologna last week, losing 2-0.

However, having played in the Champions League and losing to Bayern Munich 4-1 just four days prior, perhaps the letdown and fatigue could’ve been expected. Lazio’s fortunes could’ve also been much different had Ciro Immobile converted a 17th-minute penalty last week against Bologna to give Lazio an early lead.

It’s rare we don’t see goals between these rivals. Earlier this year they drew 1-1 and last year Juve won 2-1 at home, Lazio won 3-1 at home and Lazio again won 3-1 in the Super Cup. Both teams have now scored in the past five meetings in all competitions. While at least three goals have also been scored in four of those five. Those stats, both scoring and three-plus goals total, have also been the result in seven of nine.

If you want to follow that trend the odds offered are +100, while both teams to simply score once is -163.

Lazio won’t play until next weekend against bottom-side Crotone. And will then play leg two against Bayern on March 17. This match simply should mean more for Lazio right now as they battle to get inside the top six places. They currently sit seventh, with 43 points and one back of Napoli.

I’ll back the ‘double chance’ market on Lazio to get something from this match.

Pick: Lazio or Draw (-120)

Inter Milan vs Atalanta Prediction

The lead at the top of the table has been stretched after midweek play. Inter Milan head into Serie A Matchday 26 with a six-point lead over AC Milan. Inter were 2-1 winners on the road to Parma on Thursday, while Milan could only draw 1-1 at home to Udinese.

Inter’s match against Parma was all level at the half, but two second-half goals by Alexis Sanchez would prove to be enough. The win was their sixth-straight in Serie A and ninth-straight undefeated. When they return home to the San Siro on Monday, they do so knowing they’ve won ten-straight on their home pitch.

During Inter’s six-match winning streak they’ve outscored their opponents 17-2, scoring multiple goals in each game. Romelu Lukaku is second in the scoring race with 18 goals, while strike partner Lautaro Martinez is sixth with 13 goals.

But, they will be coming up against a team in Atalanta, that is just as prolific offensively with 60 goals scored, only two behind Inter’s 62. Atalanta has lost just a single league match in their past 16. They are currently riding a four-match winning streak of their own where they’ve outscored their opposition 12-3.

In Atalanta’s midweek match against Crotone, La Dea ran rampant with goals from five different players in a 5-1 win. Luis Muriel had one of those five goals, giving him 15 on the season. That’s good for third overall, despite having never played a full 90 minutes this season. Duvan Zapata and Robin Gosens each have nine goals for La Dea, tied for 12th overall.

Atalanta has no midweek action to play, not playing until next weekend’s match against Spezia. Followed by leg two of the Champions League against Real Madrid on March 16. While Inter simply has Serie A to worry about the rest of the way this year.

Earlier this season the teams split the points in a 1-1 draw. Despite all the offensive firepower on both sides, this was the seventh time in eight recent meetings between them that a bet on UNDER 2.5 goals would have cashed. Last year Inter won 2-0 and there was another 1-1 draw.

I’ll go against the recent trend though and back a high-scoring match Monday afternoon.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

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