Steven Dowler brings us another fantastic preview ahead of the £3,000 Best Dividend Guaranteed Place 6 at Southwell. Read on for his Southwell betting tips and join his Syndicate.
Southwell betting tips
12.15 – Class 4 Handicap Chase – 1m7f
An interesting handicap chase to start my Southwell betting tips preview. But, I think those towards the front-end of the market are worth siding with here. GREEN OR BLACK loves good ground, which she will get here and her hurdles form entitles her to plenty of respect now switched to fences. There is a chance she will need this outing, but her form is decent, and I think she will be very competitive.
The Donald-McCain-trained YOURACERT bolted up on us only previous try on good ground, and has always shaped like a set of fences will see him to best effect. Brian Hughes knows him well, therefore, he can’t be ruled out on his chase debut here given his opening handicap mark looks quite lenient.
FERROBIN was clearly the best of these over hurdles rated in the 130s last year. He lost his way a little bit afterwards, but he goes well fresh, has the form in the book, and has been given a good chance by the handicapper for the Skelton team, especially now switched to fences which ought to bring about improvement.
Selections: GREEN OR BLACK, YOURACERT, FERROBIN
12.45 – Class 5 Handicap Chase – 2m4f
Not a lot of strong-depth to this weak-looking race if I’m honest. Ideally, HIDDEN GLEN should be winning this, having won a bumper here impressively back in 2017 when formerly with Ben Pauling. He lost his way thereafter, but bounced back to form on stable debut last week when finishing second, and with room for improvement, he should go close to winning this.
KAPSIZE was a triple chase winner when trained in France, and although he’s failed to make an impact in five starts for this trainer, all those performances have come against better-opposition, so it would come as no surprise to see him involved here on a handy mark and fitness being no obstacle having gone well fresh in the past.
HURRICANE RITA completes the list. She has gone well fresh in the past, has course winning form to her name, and will enjoy the return to this distance with Adrian Heskin on board, who has won her before off this kind of mark.
Selections: HURRICANE RITA, KAPSIZE, HIDDEN GLEN
13.20 – Class 3 Handicap Chase – 3m
Top-weight AS YOU LIKE has been given an excellent chance to resume winning ways on his seasonal bow. He’s a four-time chase winner on this sort of ground, and was far from disgraced the last twice in class 2 company, most notably, when finishing third behind two 140+ rated horses at Newbury prior to finishing midfield in a warm-event at Musselburgh off the same 129 mark. The handicapper has left him alone on 129, and his first time out record reads 2, 1, 1 and 2. Therefore, this Jonjo O’Neill-trained 9-year-old ranks as one of the best bets on today’s card and he thoroughly deserves his place at the head of the market.
FORTH BRIDGE could represent some value to reach the frame at a price despite his latest form diminishing signs of confidence. He’s only 1-16 over fences, but his sole win did come off a 3lb higher mark, including the mere fact that all of his best form has come on good ground. With a fair record after a three-month break and proven form at a higher-level, this could be the day he finally bounces back to his best.
Selections: AS YOU LIKE, FORTH BRIDGE
13.50 – Class 5 Handicap Chase – 3m
Another moderate contest and top-weight NET LOVE has improved steadily for Dr Richard Newland. Her latest third behind two 120-rated rivals is by all means the strongest piece of form in comparison to today’s rivals form. On the face of it, if she demonstrates that sort of form on today’s chase debut, she could prove to be a class-above this field.
It could prove decisive that Sam Twiston-Davies has jumped ship to ride HAHADI who went close twice here back in 2019 when finishing second and third on two separate occasions off a mark of 91. He hasn’t replicated that form since, but he’s now initially 9lb below that mark on what is just his third start in this sphere, and now making his stable debut for shrewd connections, he appears open to enough potential off an attractive mark in a weak-race to warrant a decent each-way bet at 10/1.
LOUGH SALT warmer up for this with a recent-spin on the flat, and although he hasn’t been anywhere near his best for sometime, he’s 9lb below his last winning mark and is more than capable of getting involved here especially given his fitness will be assured compared to all of his rivals who return from breaks.
Selections: HAHADI, NET LOVE, LOUGH SALT
14.20 – Class 4 Novices’ Hurdle – 1m7f
The two market-leaders look set for a tight battle in this competitive-heat, and they are french-import Doukarov and MEDALLA DE ORO with clear preference for the latter – who was smart on the flat, handles good ground and having made a smooth transition to hurdles when winning on debut, he backed up that fine success with a narrow defeat behind the useful Enemy Coast Ahead over C&D last time out. Evidently, I think the winner could prove to be up to graded-level at some stage, so it was a brilliant front-running effort by the former smart flat-recruit to finish within half-a-length of the winner that day, so the Harry Whittington-trained six-year-old is handed a confident vote to get on the scoresheet, including the fact that he sets a very high standard, and apart from his nearest market rival, I don’t see anything else in the race being good enough to challenge him.
Selections: MEDALLA DE ORO
14.55 – Class 2 Handicap Hurdle – 2m3f
This looks a competitive race to round off my Southwell betting tips, although most of the runners do look relatively exposed. Taking things into consideration from a form perspective, GOODBYE DANCER could be the answer to the race. Fergal O’Brien’s 9 year-old goes well fresh having won at Cheltenham on his reappearance last season easily at this level. He looked set to follow up that success back over the same C&D next time out, only to fall at the last hurdle when challenging for the lead. A couple of lacklustre runs since that fall have been underwhelming, but he’s back on the same mark (130) as when looking set to win at Cheltenham three starts ago, and this race does look easier. With that being said, I think it would be foolish to overlook him here with the stable going great guns.
On the other hand, SOUPY SOUPS looks interesting reverting back to hurdles. He stays three miles well along winning bumper, hurdle and chase races in his career. He hasn’t been seen since pulling up at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima, but this is easier, and he was very progressive prior to that disappointing effort throughout the 2018/2019 season. Soupy is back on the same mark (134) as when beaten just a neck second in the Badger Trophy at Wincanton behind the 148-rated Give Me A Copper, where he probably would have won if ridden closer to the pace that day. Furthermore, the 9 year-old loves quick ground, and I’m hopeful this talented individual is capable of making a big impact on his return to action.
Selections: GOODBYE DANCER, SOUPY SOUPS