The UCF Knights (9-11) are favored (-3.5) to extend a three-game win streak when they visit the East Carolina Pirates (8-8) at 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, March 4, 2021 at Minges Coliseum. The game airs on ESPNU. The matchup has an over/under of 134 points.
The betting insights and predictions in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of March 4, 2021, 2:16 AM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Betting Odds
The spread for this matchup suggested by the model (0.6 points) is slightly less than the 3.5-point edge DraftKings gives to the Knights, though the data still has them as the favorite.
In this matchup, the model projects a total (135.4 points) marginally higher than the DraftKings over/under (134 points).
Prediction: UCF 68, East Carolina 67
Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.
Examining the Over/Under
- The average implied total for the Knights this season is 70.5 points, 1.5 more points than their implied total of 69 points in Thursday’s game.
- So far this season, UCF has outscored its implied point total for this matchup (69) eight times.
- The 72.1-point average implied total on the season for the Pirates is 7.1 more points than the team’s 65-point implied total in this matchup.
- East Carolina is looking to outscore its implied point total for this matchup (65) for the eighth time this season.
Implied totals are projected point totals for each team based on totals and spreads set by sportsbooks.
UCF and East Carolina Records ATS
|ATS Record||ATS Record Against 3.5+ Point Spread||Over/Under Record (O-U-P)|
Against The Spread (ATS) records are only reflective of games that had odds on them.
Betting Tips – Shooting Stats
- The Knights make 43.2% of their shots from the field this season, which is 1.6 percentage points higher than the Pirates have allowed to their opponents (41.6%).
- UCF is 7-3 against the spread and 6-4 overall in games when it collectively shoots higher than 41.6% from the field.
- East Carolina is 5-5 against the spread and 7-4 overall when allowing opponents to shoot better than 43.2% from the field.
- The Pirates have shot at a 41.9% clip from the field this season, 1.8 percentage points fewer than the 43.7% shooting opponents of the Knights have averaged.
- East Carolina is 3-1 against the spread and 6-0 overall when shooting higher than 43.7% from the field.
- UCF is 3-3 against the spread and 3-3 overall in games its opponents shoot above 41.9% from the field.
- The Knights’ 36.5% three-point shooting percentage this season is 5.1 percentage points higher than opponents of the Pirates have shot from beyond the arc (31.4%).
- UCF has assembled a 9-5 record against the spread and a 7-7 straight-up record in games this season when knocking down more than 31.4% of its three-point shots.
- East Carolina is 7-5 overall and 5-6 against the spread when its opponents shoot better than 36.5% from deep.
- The Pirates are hitting 31.1% of their shots from three-point range, which is only 1.9 percentage points fewer than the 33% the Knights’ opponents are averaging on the season.
- East Carolina has a 2-4 ATS record and has gone 5-2 straight-up when hitting more than 33% of its three-point attempts.
- UCF is 5-3 ATS and 5-3 overall in games when shooting above 31.1% from deep.
- The Knights knock down 8 three-pointers per game this season, 2.1 more made shots on average than the 5.9 per game the Pirates give up.
- UCF has gone 7-3 against the spread and 6-4 overall this season in games it has out-shot its opponents from the three-point line. When East Carolina hits fewer three-pointers than its opponents, it is 2-8 ATS and 4-7 straight up.
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