What The Stats Say: Opta shows how Chelsea and Everton are keeping it tight

Burnley will keep it tight

Burnley 6.05/1 v Arsenal 1.695/7; The Draw 4.1
Saturday 6 March, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

“Arsenal have conceded just seven goals in their 13 Premier League meetings with Burnley, and never more than once in a match. It’s the most they’ve faced a side in the competition without conceding more than one goal in any of their meetings.”

Burnley are really struggling for goals right now, but don’t tend to concede many at home. Under 2.5 goals looks big at 1.9620/21.

Expect one goal at most

Sheffield United 3.9 v Southampton 2.166/5; The Draw 3.613/5
Saturday 6 March, 15:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“After scoring in 12 consecutive league games between September – December (averaging 2.1 goals-per-game), Southampton have failed to score in eight of their last 13 Premier League matches (averaging 0.5 goals-per-game).”

Sheffield United are hardly prolific scorers themselves and under 1.5 goals is 3.211/5.

Villa’s goals have dried up

Aston Villa 2.56/4 v Wolves 3.39/4; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 6 March, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Aston Villa netted 27 goals in their first 13 Premier League games this season, netting 3+ goals on six separate occasions – in their last 12 games, they have scored just 11 goals, failing to score more than twice in any game.”

Wolves have tightened up on late and this could be another low scoring game at under 2.5 goals.

Leicester have great away record

Brighton 2.6213/8 v Leicester 3.185/40; The Draw 3.412/5
Saturday 6 March, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Leicester are unbeaten in their last 12 away games in all competitions (W7 D5), only having one longer away unbeaten run in their entire history, a 14-match stretch between April and December 2015.”

The Foxes are weakened through injury at the moment, but their price is very big and you can back them in the Draw No Bet market at 2.26/5.

Another win for Baggies

West Brom 2.526/4 v Newcastle 3.259/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunday 7 March, 12:00
Live on Amazon Prime

“Since picking up nine points in a run of five games in November/December (W3 D0 L2), Newcastle have won just nine points from their subsequent 15 Premier League matches (W2 D3 L10).”

West Brom picked up a recent home win against Brighton and you can back them to claim another victory at 2.526/4.

Liverpool will continue to struggle at Anfield

Liverpool 1.422/5 v Fulham 9.08/1; The Draw 5.24/1
Sunday 7 March, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Fulham are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League away games (W1 D6) – their longest run without defeat on the road in their top-flight history. The Cottagers have also kept three clean sheets in their last five Premier League away games, more than they had in their previous 45 on the road in the competition (2).”

Considering Liverpool’s poor form and lack of goals at home, there’s no way that they should be such big favourites, in what seems likely to be a low scoring match. Under 2.5 goals is 2.226/5.

Slim win for City in derby

Manchester City 1.548/15 v Manchester United 7.26/1; The Draw 4.67/2
Sunday 7 March, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in both of their meetings with Manchester United this season (0-0 Premier League, 2-0 League Cup). The last team to record three shutouts against the Red Devils within a single season was Arsenal in 1998-99.”

Take a chance on Manchester City win and under 2.5 goals landing at odds of 4.03/1.

Another clean sheet for Spurs

Tottenham 1.548/15 v Crystal Palace 7.613/2; The Draw 4.57/2
Sunday 7 March, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“Since Crystal Palace’s return to the Premier League in 2013, Tottenham have kept 11 clean sheets in 15 top-flight meetings with the Eagles – more than any side has against another in the division in that time.”

Spurs have won their last two Premier League games without conceding and with Palace struggling to score goals, the hosts are 2.3811/8 to win to nil.

Chelsea and Everton are not conceding

Chelsea 1.574/7 v Everton 6.86/1; The Draw 4.3100/30
Monday 8 March, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

“Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel could become the first manager in Premier League history to see his side keep a clean sheet in each of his first five home games in charge in the competition. Meanwhile, the Blues are looking to keep five consecutive home league clean sheets for the first time since January 2015.”

This looks set to be a particularly low scoring weekend in the Premier League and under 2.5 goals could be worth backing again, this time at odds of 1.9210/11.

Leeds will get hammered

West Ham 2.1411/10 v Leeds 3.613/5; The Draw 3.814/5
Monday 8 March, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

“West Ham United are looking to win three consecutive home Premier League matches for the first time since March 2019, while manager David Moyes hasn’t won three in a row at home since winning his last six as Everton manager in 2013.”

The Hammers are genuine contenders for a Champions League place and they can improve their standing with a win at 2.1411/10.

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