Why Baccarat Makes Using Betting Systems Difficult

People Playing BaccaratBetting systems are quite popular in casino gaming. They typically provide a strong chance of winning money in any given session.

Systems generally work best with casino games that feature even-money bets. Examples of these games include blackjack, craps, and roulette.

Real money online baccarat also features even-money wagers. However, you may find this game more difficult to use in conjunction with a system.

I’ll explain why throughout the following post. I’ll also discuss how you can still use betting systems through baccarat with the right approach.

Baccarat Seemingly Works Well with Gambling Systems

In theory, baccarat should be a perfect game for betting strategies. After all, it features two even-money wagers:

  • Banker Bet – You wager on the banker hand winning
  • Player Bet – You wager on the player hand winning

These bets not only offer even-money payouts but also great RTP. The banker hand features 98.94% RTP, while the player hand offers 98.76% payback.

Even if you don’t use a system, you have a solid chance to win with either of these options. But you might consider taking things even further by using a baccarat betting system.

The Banker Bet Commission Complicates Things

The banker and player wagers are both worthwhile in the grand scheme of online gaming. However, the banker bet gives you a slightly stronger chance of winning.

That said, it seems like you should use this bet with systems. However, the banker hand has one aspect that complicates matters.

Casinos take a 5% commission out of winning banker bets. If you wager $10 on this hand and win, for example, then you’ll receive a $9.50 payout.

Baccarat

These wins aren’t in perfect proportion to the stake and, thus, make it harder to keep track of wins and losses. You’ll especially find this aspect annoying when trying to win back losses through negative progression systems.

Land-based casinos don’t usually take out the 5% commission right away. In these situations, you’ll be dealing with wins and losses that are in perfect proportion.

However, you’ll need to settle the commissions after the session. This can be even more troublesome than dealing with imperfect wins. The impending commissions create a small headache when using any betting strategy.

How to Apply Different Betting Systems to Baccarat

You can see that the banker bet isn’t truly ideal for gambling systems. Nevertheless, you can still apply staking strategies to this wager. Here’s a look at what to expect with some of the most-popular systems.

D’Alembert

Jean-Baptiste le Rond d’Alembert created this system under the illusion of the gambler’s fallacy. He thought that if one outcome keeps winning, then the other side is due for a win.

While d’Alembert was misguided about fixed-odds casino games, he did create a great betting system out of the matter. The D’Alembert centers on increasing bets by one unit following a loss.

After winning, you’ll decrease the next bet by one unit. The goal is to work your way back down to a single betting unit.

Here’s an example of the D’Alembert in baccarat:

  • Unit is $5.
  • Bet $5 and lose; losses at $5.
  • Bet $10 and lose; losses at $15.
  • Bet $15 and lose; losses at $30.
  • Bet $20 and win $19; losses at $11.
  • Bet $15 and win $14.25; winnings at $3.25.
  • Bet $10 and win $9.50; winnings at $12.75.
  • Bet $5 and win $4.75; winnings at $17.50.

Fibonacci

Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa (a.k.a. Fibonacci) created a famous sequence that’s used in everything from trading stocks to gambling. Regarding the latter, the Fibonacci betting system follows this sequence: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377.

Each number represents the sum of the previous two (e.g. 2 + 3 = 5). They also represent how many units you risk in a given bet.

You begin by risking 1 unit (0 + 1) and moving one to the right following every loss. Following a win, you move two numbers to the right (e.g. 5 to 2). The goal is to keep winning until moving back to the original one-unit stake.

Here’s an example of the Fibonacci involving the banker bet:

  • Unit is $1.
  • Bet $1 (0 + 1) and lose; losses at $1.
  • Bet $2 (1 + 1) and lose; losses at $3.
  • Bet $3 (1 + 2) and lose; losses at $6.
  • Bet $5 (2 + 3) and lose; losses at $11.
  • Bet $8 (3 + 5) and win $7.60; losses at $3.40.
  • Bet $3 and win $2.85; losses at $0.55.
  • Bet $1 and win $0.95; winnings at $0.40.

Martingale

This system requires you to double a wager after each loss. You return to the minimum bet following any win.

The Martingale is highly risky since it requires doubling bets during losing streaks. However, it’s also very effective in most sessions.

Here’s how it works with baccarat:

  • Bet $5 and lose; losses at $5.
  • Bet $10 and lose; losses at $15.
  • Bet $20 and lose; losses at $35.
  • Bet $40 and win $38; winnings at $3.
  • Return to the original $5 wager.

Paroli

The Paroli is the lone positive progression system on this list. Rather than calling on you to increase bets during losing streaks, it requires doing so during winning streaks.

Specifically, you double wagers following every win. You continue in this manner until reaching three consecutive wins, at which point you’ll go back to the initial stake. You also return to the minimum bet following a loss.

Here’s a Paroli example with the banker wager:

  • Bet $1 and win; winnings at $1.
  • Bet $2 and lose; losses at $1.
  • Bet $1 and win; even.
  • Bet $2 and win; winnings at $2.
  • Bet $4 and win; winnings at $6.
  • Return to the original $1 stake.

Avoid Commissions with the Player Bet

Again, the banker bet provides the strongest chance to win thanks to its 98.94% RTP. As illustrated throughout this post, though, the 5% commissions make for some odd-looking wins.

That said, you can skip this confusion and use the player bet. The player wager has almost the same RTP (98.76%) and offers even-money payouts with no commissions.

You can use any of the previously covered systems without needing to worry about payouts like $7.60 or $2.85. Furthermore, you won’t need to settle commissions after sessions in land-based casinos.

Additionally, the player bet stacks up well to some of the highest-paying casino games and wagers. For example, it pays better than European roulette (97.30% RTP), the craps don’t pass line bet (98.64%), and craps pass line bet (98.59%).

Will You Experience More Baccarat Success Through Systems?

The illusion of betting systems is that they can provide guaranteed profits. In reality, though, they merely give you a better short-term chance of winning.

The odds in baccarat and other casino games don’t change just because you’re using a system. Therefore, you won’t overcome the house edge through betting strategies.

Baccarat Comp

Nevertheless, you can still benefit from using systems. They add more entertainment to the equation and, as mentioned before, can boost your short-term odds of winning.

The Martingale is especially effective in most sessions. It wipes away long losing streaks with a single win.

However, you also have to be careful when using more volatile systems like the Martingale. They can cause extreme losses during a downswing.

That said, you should definitely do bankroll management calculations before putting a system into play. Provided you only risk what you can afford to lose, then you’ll have plenty of success with betting strategies.

Conclusion

Baccarat is one of the best-paying casino games thanks to the banker bet. That said, you might consider dealing with the 5% commissions just to use systems on this game.

With experience, you’ll be able to calculate the odd win totals more easily. If you don’t want to go through this, though, then you can always switch to the player bet.

The player wager only features 0.18% less RTP than the banker. More importantly with regard to systems, it doesn’t feature any commissions.

In either case, you can see that baccarat is a valid game for the purpose of staking systems. The banker wager just makes things a little harder.

Latest posts